MLB Wild Card Preview 2025: Bad Blood, First-Timers, and a Path to October Chaos

This is my MLB Wild Card Preview 2025—fast, matchup-by-matchup, and built for fans who want signal over noise. We’ve got long-simmering feuds, a century-old AL rivalry finally meeting in October, a Reds team ahead of schedule, and a Dodgers machine powered by Shohei Ohtani.

Image created with Gemini. Concept by Mathew Frasier

The bracket is set, and I’m here for it. We’ve got long-simmering feuds, a century-old AL rivalry finally meeting in October, a Reds team playing way ahead of schedule, and a Dodgers machine powered by Shohei Ohtani. Top seeds: Toronto Blue Jays (AL No. 1) and Seattle Mariners (AL No. 2); Milwaukee Brewers (NL No. 1) and Philadelphia Phillies (NL No. 2). For a live bracket, check ESPN’s postseason hub or CBS Sports’ tracker.

I’m keeping this meaty—but not a slog. One tight “why,” one thing to watch, and a couple of quick data hits you can feel in a best-of-three.

AL Wild Card - MLB Wild Card Preview

(3) Cleveland Guardians vs (6) Detroit Tigers

Series note: It took more than a century, but these charter AL rivals finally share a postseason stage.

Why Cleveland: They’ve been living in leverage for weeks. That bullpen phone rings, and the game shrinks to six outs. Comfortable winning 3–2.

Why Detroit: Enough swing-and-miss to ugly this up. If they score first, they can tilt pace and put Cleveland in chase mode.

What to watch: Guardians’ pocket-by-pocket pen matchups vs. Detroit’s right-handed thump.

Data hits

• Guardians: September strand-rate surge; late innings feel scripted.

• Tigers: Top-third chase-rate pitching profile; whiffs erase traffic.

Pick: Guardians in 3.

(4) New York Yankees vs (5) Boston Red Sox

Series note: The postseason ledger between these two is dead even historically; margins are razor-thin again.

Why New York: Layered bullpen, Bronx oxygen in the eighth, and enough base-on-balls + pull-side damage to flip a night.

Why Boston: When they’re clean, they manufacture—pressure, speed, doubles down the line—and force mistakes.

What to watch: First-pitch strike % for NYY’s Game 1 starter; it sets the tenor of the series.

Data hits

• Yankees: HR/BB combo at home; two-run swings live here.

• Red Sox: High contact from the top third; traffic turns into stress.

Pick: Yankees in 3.

NL Wild Card - MLB Wild Card Preview

(3) Los Angeles Dodgers vs (6) Cincinnati Reds

Series note: Throwback to 1995 (Reds swept that NLDS). Different era, same chaos potential. Ohtani’s present tense matters more—he set the Dodgers’ single-season HR record at 55.

Why Los Angeles: Ohtani sets table-shaking pressure every trip. The at-bat quality across 1–9 stacks seven-pitch headaches.

Why Cincinnati: Youth and aggression. If they grab an early lead, the running game becomes a real problem.

What to watch: Outfield defense on balls in the gap—doubles vs. long outs is the swing stat.

Data hits

• Dodgers: Top-tier OBP core; constant traffic.

• Reds: Elite team speed; the extra 90 feet keeps them in any game.

Pick: Dodgers in 2.

(4) Chicago Cubs vs (5) San Diego Padres

Series note: Wrigley tension with a nod to the 1984 NLCS (Padres over Cubs 3–2)—different format, same nerves.

Why Chicago: Run prevention and last ups. Clean baseball wins coin flips at home.

Why San Diego: Rotation swing-and-miss and enough star power to steal two anywhere.

What to watch: Cubs controlling the running game; Padres landing early-count breakers.

Data hits

• Cubs: Top-half defensive efficiency; balls in play become outs.

• Padres: Rotation K/9 plays anywhere; whiffs erase messes.

Pick: Cubs in 3.

Byes (context for your sidebars)

• Blue Jays (AL No. 1): first AL East title since 2015; contact depth + loud corners.

• Mariners (AL No. 2): true swing-and-miss staff; Cal Raleigh’s 60-HR season is a game-tilt weapon.

• Brewers (NL No. 1): best run-prevention ecosystem; sequencing savvy.

• Phillies (NL No. 2): veteran core; bye lets them script the NLDS rotation.

My Picks

My MLB Wild Card Preview 2025 picks are below—quick, confident, and grounded in leverage, defense, and game-state control all the way through the World Series.

AL Wild Card

• Guardians over Tigers (2–1) — leverage pen + comfort winning 3–2.

• Yankees over Red Sox (2–1) — Bronx leverage + last six outs.

NL Wild Card

• Dodgers over Reds (2–0) — sustained traffic overwhelms a young staff.

• Cubs over Padres (2–1) — cleaner defense + last ups in the rubber game.

ALDS

• Blue Jays over Yankees (3–1) — contact depth wins late at-bats.

• Mariners over Guardians (3–1) — strikeouts turn rallies into solo shots; Raleigh flips one.

NLDS

• Brewers over Cubs (3–1) — run prevention and bullpen matchups.

• Dodgers over Phillies (3–2) — star power survives a heavyweight set.

ALCS

• Mariners over Blue Jays (4–2) — staff/defense travel; No. 29 owns a moment.

NLCS

• Brewers over Dodgers (4–3) — pitching density + home field win the final inches.

World Series

• Mariners over Brewers (4–2) — late-inning inevitability; one big swing a night.