The 2026 MLB season is underway, and that means the division-by-division breakdowns can now turn into one bigger question: who actually wins all of this?

The previews matter, but this is where everything gets stacked side by side. Some races look tight, some divisions have a clearer favorite, and a few teams feel like they could either look brilliant by May or messy in a hurry. This is the bigger picture: division winners, wild cards, award picks, pennant winners, and the World Series call. FanGraphs’ current preseason playoff odds still show the Dodgers, Mariners, Mets, Yankees, Tigers, and Cubs as the division favorites, with the AL East, NL East, and NL Central still looking especially tight by comparison.

American League division winners

AL East: Yankees

This is still the hardest division in the American League to call, but I’m giving the Yankees the edge. FanGraphs has New York with the best AL East division odds at 32.3%, but Baltimore, Boston, and Toronto are all close enough that nothing here feels safe. That is exactly why the Yankees make the most sense as the pick: not because the gap is huge, but because they still look like the steadiest bet over 162 games.

AL Central: Tigers

Detroit feels like the team that has moved from interesting to expected. FanGraphs gives the Tigers a 59.8% chance to win the AL Central, which is one of the stronger division leads in either league outside of the Dodgers and Mariners. That does not guarantee anything, but it does match the broader read on this division: Detroit has the clearest target on its back and the strongest overall case entering the season.

AL West: Mariners

Seattle looks like one of the safer division picks on the board. FanGraphs projects the Mariners for 88.3 wins, a 62.6% chance to win the AL West, and an 80.4% chance to make the playoffs. That combination matters because it shows Seattle is not just leading a weak field on paper. The Mariners look like a legitimate contender with a real chance to control the division if the rotation stays healthy.

National League division winners

NL East: Mets

The NL East still feels like one of the toughest calls in baseball, but I’m sticking with the Mets. FanGraphs has New York at 37.4% to win the division, just ahead of Atlanta at 35.2% and Philadelphia at 26.6%. That tells the story well: this is not a runaway favorite situation, but the Mets still have the best statistical case entering the season.

NL Central: Cubs

The Cubs get the pick because they look like the most balanced team in a division that still feels pretty open. FanGraphs gives Chicago a 43.1% chance to win the Central, with Pittsburgh and Milwaukee still close enough to matter. Chicago does not look untouchable, but it does look like the cleanest bet in a division where nobody has total control.

NL West: Dodgers

This is the easiest division call of the bunch. FanGraphs gives Los Angeles a 93.2% chance to win the NL West and the strongest World Series odds in baseball at 26.5%. The Dodgers are still the standard. Until somebody proves otherwise, they are the safest pick in the sport.

Wild-card teams

American League wild cards

• Orioles

• Blue Jays

• Guardians

Baltimore and Toronto both look like playoff-caliber teams even if they finish behind New York, and Cleveland still projects well enough to stay firmly in the October picture. FanGraphs currently gives the Orioles a 54.7% chance to make the playoffs, the Blue Jays 47.0%, and the Guardians 58.4%, which supports all three as reasonable wild-card picks.

National League wild cards

• Braves

• Phillies

• Padres

The NL East is strong enough to send two wild cards, and Atlanta and Philadelphia both still project like playoff teams even if the Mets win the division. San Diego gets the last spot here because the Padres still look like the most reliable non-Dodgers team in the NL West mix. FanGraphs gives the Braves a 79.3% chance to make the playoffs and the Phillies 72.2%, while the Padres sit in that crowded second tier in the National League.

Pennant winners

American League champion: Mariners

This is the pick that feels a little bolder than the division call, but Seattle has the kind of roster that can work in October if the pitching holds. FanGraphs gives the Mariners an 8.9% chance to win the World Series, which is one of the strongest marks in the American League. That does not make them a lock, but it does make them more than just a trendy regular-season pick.

National League champion: Dodgers

This one is simpler. The Dodgers have the strongest playoff profile in baseball entering the season, with the best division odds, the best pennant path, and the best World Series odds. If I’m making one safe call in this bracket, it is Los Angeles coming out of the National League.

World Series pick

Dodgers over Mariners

The Dodgers are the cleanest championship pick because the roster still looks deeper than everybody else’s, and the projections back that up. Seattle gets the American League side because it feels like the club most capable of pairing top-end pitching with enough offense to break through. The biggest thing working against any prediction this early is how fast a season can change, but going into the year, the Dodgers over the Mariners is the pick.

Award picks

AL MVP: Aaron Judge

Judge still feels like the safest MVP call in the American League because he combines elite production with the kind of team context that keeps him at the center of the season. MLB.com’s expert stat-leader predictions had Judge as the top home run pick, which lines up with the bigger MVP argument, too.

NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani

Ohtani is the cleanest superstar pick in the National League. MLB.com’s expert stat-leader predictions described the NL home run race as a runaway in his favor, and that is usually a strong sign of how the broader award picture looks, too. As long as he stays healthy, he belongs at the front of the MVP conversation.

AL Cy Young: Tarik Skubal

This one is more of a projection call than a consensus headline pick, but it fits the shape of the season. Detroit is expected to win the AL Central, and Skubal is still the arm most likely to sit at the center of that push. If the Tigers meet expectations, he will probably be one of the biggest reasons why.

NL Cy Young: Yoshinobu Yamamoto

If I’m betting on a Dodgers ace to lead a dominant team season, Yamamoto makes a lot of sense. Los Angeles is already the most favored team in baseball, and a dominant year from one of its frontline starters would fit naturally with that larger picture. This is the kind of pick that looks smart if the Dodgers perform the way the projections expect.

AL Rookie of the Year: Kevin McGonigle

McGonigle feels like the kind of rookie who could gain real attention quickly if Detroit plays to expectations. If the Tigers win the division and he becomes an everyday contributor early, he will get plenty of visibility.

NL Rookie of the Year: Konnor Griffin

This is the boldest pick in the awards group, but the upside is obvious. If Griffin gets to Pittsburgh early enough and produces right away, he has the kind of talent that can make the race interesting in a hurry.

Final prediction board

American League

• AL East: Yankees

• AL Central: Tigers

• AL West: Mariners

• Wild Cards: Orioles, Blue Jays, Guardians

• AL Champion: Mariners

National League

• NL East: Mets

• NL Central: Cubs

• NL West: Dodgers

• Wild Cards: Braves, Phillies, Padres

• NL Champion: Dodgers

World Series

• Dodgers over Mariners

Awards

• AL MVP: Aaron Judge

• NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani

• AL Cy Young: Tarik Skubal

• NL Cy Young: Yoshinobu Yamamoto

• AL Rookie of the Year: Kevin McGonigle

• NL Rookie of the Year: Konnor Griffin

The safest prediction is still the Dodgers. The most interesting one might be Seattle. The messiest races still look like the East divisions and the NL Central. That is what should make this season fun. There are clear favorites, but there is still enough pressure, talent, and uncertainty around the league to make a lot of these picks look shaky by the time summer gets here. FanGraphs’ March 24 odds show the broad shape, but not the surprises that always come with a full season.

My Question for You: 

Which prediction will look the worst by midseason — the Dodgers winning it all, the Mariners winning the American League, or one of the East division calls?