The NL West enters 2026 with a familiar headline and a less familiar question underneath it. The Dodgers are still the class of the division on paper, and not by a small margin. FanGraphs projects Los Angeles for about 101–102 wins with roughly a 97% chance to win the division, while the next tier sits much farther back: Arizona, around 81–82 wins; San Francisco, around 81; and San Diego, around 80. That makes the top of the division look predictable, but the rest of it is anything but.

That is really what defines this division heading into Opening Day. The Dodgers look like the favorite. The more interesting conversation is what happens behind them. The Padres, Giants, and Diamondbacks all have credible paths to relevance, but each comes with a different kind of uncertainty. Colorado still looks like the clear long shot, though even the Rockies have enough offensive potential to be annoying in the wrong series at the wrong time. The NL West may not have much suspense at the very top, but it still has pressure, volatility, and many teams that can shape the wild-card picture.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers still deserve to open the season as one of baseball’s clearest division favorites. FanGraphs gives them the strongest projection in the NL West by a huge margin, and MLB.com has framed Los Angeles as a club thinking not just about winning the division, but about making a serious push for a third straight World Series title. That tells you where expectations sit. This is not just a good roster. It is a roster built to dominate over six months and still look dangerous in October.

Even with that, the Dodgers are not opening 2026 without issues. MLB.com reported that they will need to lean on depth early because Blake Snell and Gavin Stone are among the pitchers starting the year on the injured list, while Tommy Edman and Kiké Hernández are also unavailable. That matters because depth is part of what makes the Dodgers different. Their projected lineup and rotation still look loaded enough to survive those absences, which is exactly why they remain the division standard. The biggest challenge for Los Angeles is not whether it can win the West. It is whether it can stay healthy enough to keep the machine running at full strength.

San Diego Padres

San Diego feels like the most obvious challenger, even if the gap between the Padres and Dodgers is still real. MLB.com noted that the Padres are chasing a third straight postseason berth, which would be a franchise first, and that alone speaks to the consistency this team has started to build. The core still gives them real top-end credibility, and the spring lineup has featured Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. near the top. That is enough star power to stay in the picture.

The bigger question is whether San Diego has enough overall depth to make this a serious division race rather than just a wild-card chase. FanGraphs projects the Padres around 80 wins, well behind Los Angeles, and that feels like a reflection of the roster’s thinner margin for error. They have playoff-level talent. They just do not look as complete as the Dodgers, and they do not look clearly safer than Arizona or San Francisco either. San Diego can absolutely matter in this division. It just feels more likely to be playing for positioning behind Los Angeles than overtaking them.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona might be the most interesting team in the division because the Diamondbacks seem capable of going either way. FanGraphs has them in the same range as San Francisco and a little ahead of San Diego, which tells you how tightly grouped the second tier is. MLB.com’s recent roster coverage also shows a team with enough proven names to stay relevant, including Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo, Gabriel Moreno, Jordan Lawlar, and newly added veteran help like Nolan Arenado and Carlos Santana. That is a lineup with more bite than people may realize.

The real swing point for Arizona is pitching health and stability. MLB.com reported that Zac Gallen was surprisingly re-signed, which is a huge boost, but Merrill Kelly’s back stiffness altered the Opening Day conversation. That kind of detail matters in a division where Arizona probably needs a lot to go right to separate from the Giants and Padres. The Diamondbacks do not look like the Dodgers’ equal, but they do look like a team that can stay relevant deep into the season if the rotation holds together and Carroll leads the offense the way he is capable of.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants might be the division’s most difficult team to pin down. There is enough here to see a competitive club, but not quite enough certainty to call them a true threat to the Dodgers. Logan Webb remains the anchor, and MLB.com confirmed he will make his fifth straight Opening Day start, which gives San Francisco a real identity at the top of the rotation. That matters, especially for a team that feels like it needs clean, reliable pitching to stay in the mix.

The rest of the outlook comes down to whether the Giants have enough offense and roster clarity to turn “interesting” into “dangerous.” MLB.com noted earlier this month that San Francisco still had unresolved roster questions with Opening Night approaching, which says a lot about where the club is. FanGraphs sees them as roughly an 81-win team, which is solid, but it also places them in that crowded middle tier rather than in true contender territory. The Giants feel like a team that can hang around, especially with Webb setting the tone, but they still look more likely to chase a wild card than to chase down Los Angeles.

Colorado Rockies

Colorado still looks like the clear fifth-place team in the division, but that does not mean the Rockies are without intrigue. MLB.com’s season-prediction coverage pointed to offense as the path toward any real improvement, especially if Ezequiel Tovar and Brenton Doyle bounce back, Hunter Goodman builds on his All-Star year, and younger pieces like Jordan Beck continue to mature. At Coors Field, that is not nothing. A Rockies team that hits can still create problems, even if the overall roster is not built to contend in this division.

The bigger issue is that Colorado still looks too thin compared to the rest of the West. MLB.com’s roster coverage shows a club leaning on development and internal growth, with Kyle Karros and TJ Rumfield among the newcomers making the Opening Day group. That is useful for the future, but it does not change the present much. The Rockies may be more watchable than people expect on certain nights, but over 162 games, they still look like the division’s longest shot.

Who Has the Edge?

Favorite: Dodgers

Biggest challenger: Padres

Most interesting swing team: Diamondbacks

Most difficult team to fully trust: Giants

Most pressure: Padres

Los Angeles gets the edge because the projection gap is massive and the roster still looks deep even with early injuries. San Diego remains the cleanest challenger because of the star talent at the top, but Arizona and San Francisco are close enough that the race behind the Dodgers could get messy fast. Colorado still looks like the team at the bottom, though it has enough offensive upside to play spoiler from time to time.

Predicted order of finish

1. Dodgers

2. Padres

3. Diamondbacks

4. Giants

5. Rockies

This feels like one of the easier divisions to call at the top and one of the harder ones to sort underneath. The Dodgers still look built to control the West. The Padres get the nod for second because their top-end talent feels a little more dangerous right now, but Arizona and San Francisco are close enough that those spots could flip. Colorado still looks a tier below the rest.

My Question for You: 

After the Dodgers, who is the real second-best team in the NL West right now — the Padres, Diamondbacks, or Giants?