The NL Central does not have the same kind of top-heavy look as the Dodgers’ division or the same clear three-team framing as the NL East. This one feels more fluid. Chicago enters the season as the most common favorite, but the gap is not overwhelming, and the teams behind the Cubs all bring a different kind of intrigue. FanGraphs’ preseason odds give Chicago the best chance to win the division at about 43–44%, with Pittsburgh and Milwaukee not far enough back to ignore.

Depending on the projection model, the race can look tighter or swing more dramatically, which tells you all you need to know about the division: there is a favorite, but not a runaway one.

That uncertainty is what makes the NL Central interesting. The Cubs look deeper and more stable than the rest. The Brewers still have a recent track record that makes people hesitate to pick against them. The Pirates have enough upside to be a real problem if their young core and pitching lineup at the same time. Cincinnati looks dangerous in spots, but injuries already matter. St. Louis is younger and clearly shifting into a different phase, which makes the Cardinals more unpredictable than threatening right now. This division feels like one that could stay unsettled longer than expected.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs deserve to open as the division favorite. FanGraphs projects Chicago for around 86 wins and gives the club the best NL Central odds entering the season, while MLB.com has emphasized that the standard inside the clubhouse is now higher after a 92-win 2025 and a playoff run that stopped one game short of the NLCS. That matters. This is not a team hoping to surprise people. It is a team expecting to win the Central and push deeper into October.

There are good reasons for that confidence. MLB.com’s projected lineup includes Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ, Alex Bregman, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Carson Kelly, Moisés Ballesteros, Dansby Swanson, and Michael Conforto. That is a balanced group with a mix of established talent and younger upside, and Ballesteros making the Opening Day roster gives the Cubs another interesting bat to work with. The bigger question is whether the pitching does enough over a full season, but continuity plus added star power is usually a strong place to start. Chicago looks like the most complete team in the division, even if the margin is smaller than it appears at first glance.

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee is the defending division champ, and that alone makes it hard to dismiss the Brewers even if projection systems do not hand them the top spot. MLB.com’s 2026 season preview pointed out that the club is coming off a franchise-record 97 wins and that manager Pat Murphy believes this younger group can still be good even with less experience on the mound. That sounds like the Brewers in a nutshell. They rarely look flashy enough for the national spotlight, but they keep finding ways to outperform expectations.

The biggest question is the rotation. Milwaukee traded away its ace, and that changes the shape of the team. At the same time, the Brewers are handing Opening Day to Jacob Misiorowski, a sign of how much confidence they have in the next wave. Jackson Chourio remains the face of the position-player group, and MLB.com noted he already has a chance to join rare company in franchise history if he posts another 20-homer, 20-steal season. The Brewers do not look as safe as the Cubs on paper, but they still appear to be a team fully capable of staying in the middle of the division race, which is what they tend to do.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh might be the most fascinating team in the division because the upside feels real even if the floor is harder to trust. FanGraphs gives the Pirates the second-best NL Central odds behind the Cubs, and MLB.com just published a bold prediction that Pittsburgh could actually win the division. That does not mean it is the most likely outcome, but it shows how much belief there is in the talent base if this group clicks.

MLB.com’s roster notes also show a team that is trying to balance present production with the future. Konnor Griffin, MLB Pipeline’s top overall prospect, will begin the year in Triple-A, while Jared Triolo is set to handle shortstop to open the season. The lineup still leans heavily on Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz, and MLB.com’s season preview suggested the club’s veteran additions in the middle of the lineup and new impact bullpen arms could help stabilize things. Pittsburgh feels like the division’s biggest swing team. If the bats support the pitching and Cruz plays to his ceiling, the Pirates can absolutely make this division messy.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds look like a team with enough talent to stay interesting, but they are already carrying some real limitations into Opening Day. The biggest one is Hunter Greene’s absence. MLB.com reported that Greene is out until at least July following elbow surgery, and that is a major problem for a club that was already very reliant on its starting staff. A recent MLB.com predictions piece said that part plainly: Cincinnati is depending heavily on its rotation, and losing Greene changes the math immediately.

There is still a lot to like here. Elly De La Cruz remains one of the most electric players in the division, and earlier lineup projections featured TJ Friedl, Noelvi Marte, Elly, Spencer Steer, Sal Stewart, JJ Bleday, Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain, and Ke’Bryan Hayes. That lineup has athleticism and some real upside, but MLB.com also noted before the season that only a couple of Reds positions were projected to rank near the top 20 in WAR. That is a reminder that the roster still has some uneven spots. Cincinnati can be dangerous, but it feels more like a team that needs several things to go right at once rather than one that enters the year from a position of stability.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals enter 2026 as the hardest team in the division to read because the roster is clearly changing. MLB.com’s projected Opening Day roster described St. Louis as a much younger team, with newcomers like JJ Wetherholt and a more developmental feel after moving on from veterans such as Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, and Sonny Gray. That is not a small shift. It changes both the identity of the lineup and the expectations around the season.

The path for St. Louis to outperform expectations is straightforward. MLB.com’s season prediction story said the Cardinals have to pitch well, defend well, and play more of a pressure-and-contact style because they do not have enough proven power to just wait for three-run homers. That makes this team interesting, but it also makes the margin for error pretty small. The Cardinals may be more competitive than some people expect because of their energy and youth, but compared with the Cubs, Brewers, and Pirates, they still look like a team in transition more than one ready to control the division.

Who Has the Edge?

Favorite: Cubs

Biggest challenger: Brewers

Most dangerous swing team: Pirates

Hardest team to trust: Reds

Most pressure: Cubs

Chicago gets the edge because it combines the strongest preseason odds with a roster that looks deeper and more balanced than the rest of the division. Milwaukee remains the cleanest challenger because the Brewers have earned the benefit of the doubt after consistently outperforming projections. Pittsburgh is the swing team because the upside is obvious, and Cincinnati feels dangerous but less stable because of the injury hit to its rotation. St. Louis looks like a younger club that may be competitive in stretches but is still not as complete as the division's top tier.

Predicted order of finish

1. Cubs

2. Brewers

3. Pirates

4. Reds

5. Cardinals

This division feels like it could move around more than most people expect, but Chicago still looks like the safest pick entering the season. Milwaukee has the track record to make that uncomfortable, and Pittsburgh has enough upside to crash the top tier if things click. Cincinnati looks talented but a little too compromised right now, and St. Louis feels like a team laying groundwork for what comes next.

My Question for You: 

Who is the biggest real threat to the Cubs in the NL Central — Milwaukee’s consistency or Pittsburgh’s upside?