The Florida Panthers are in last place in the Atlantic Division– and goaltending is what's holding them back.

Concept by Breaking Ball Media — AI-generated image.

Despite above-average defense in front of him, Sergei Bobrovsky is not playing well at all.

Bobrovsky has been between the pipes for the Florida Panthers as their starting goalie since 2019 and has appeared in the Stanley Cup Finals each of the last three consecutive seasons, winning the last two. That is the most comprehensive resume for a net minder this century. Not even the GOAT Martin Brodeur can say that he has done the same.

But this year looks different. Bobrovsky has been the face of Florida Panthers goaltending and is posting a .871 save percentage, a career low. Despite the fact that he has the NHL's 5th-ranked defense based on Shots Against Per Game (SAA) in front of him. SAA is a direct reflection of shot suppression; the fewer shots on the net, the fewer goals a goalie must prevent. SAA is not a direct reflection of a defense's worth. It does mean that there are 27 teams seeing more shots at their goalies than Florida.

At 37 years old, Bobrovski is the oldest starting goalie in the NHL this year, and it appears that he is losing his edge. Is this foreshadowing his future in the NHL? Or, albeit unlikely, is this just an off-season? Either way, head coach Paul Maurice must address the issue now if he plans on coaching in the Stanley Cup finals for a fourth consecutive year. Florida is eight points out of the final wild card spot of the Eastern Conference. That is only four games back. It’s also more than reasonable to be concerned. The remainder of the regular season will resume February 25th when the Olympic participants return to their respective NHL locker rooms. This final stretch of 25 games needs to go differently for the Panthers if they have any hope of a three-peat.

Sergei Bobrovsky's statistics at the Olympic break (25 games remaining in regular season): 

21-17-1

Goals Against Average: 3.13 (63rd of 92 goalies to appear in an NHL game this season)

Save Percentage: .872 (74th of 92 goalies to appear in an NHL game this season)

Does coach Maurice trust Bobrovsky? Can he afford to? He certainly has the resume. Or does Maurice give more of the final 25 games to backup goalie Daniil Tarasov? If the decision were mine, I would use Tarasov as much as I can, until I can’t. It's not that I trust Tarasov more, or that I even like his stat line (His Save Percentage is .899, marginally better than the .872 of Bobrovsky) he is simply the only alternative at this point. I have no reason to believe that Bobrovsky can get it done. His 39 starts with the only consistency coming in the form of below-average play, does it for me. Eight points out with 25 games left isn’t panic — but it’s the point where you can’t keep donating starts while you wait for a turnaround. Simply put, the writing is not only on the proverbial wall. It’s in this season's stat sheets.

If Maurice shifts the workload to Tarasov and gets mediocre results, perhaps an urgent and dramatic change outside of the Panthers locker room is in order. The Panthers' AHL affiliate, the Charlotte Checkers have a young, promising BIG goalie in Cooper Black. Standing at 6' 8" before skates, he has put up a respectable 18-7-2 record with a 2.45 Goals Against Average and a .904 Save Percentage. It's likely too early to rush the 24-year-old into an NHL crease, but he may just be the spark this team needs. Natural progression would see Black on the main roster one day, but his development plan certainly doesn't have him in the NHL this season. If it did, he would be there now.

The Takeaway 

Sergei Bobrovsky is aging, and the Florida Panthers need to consider what’s next, right now.

Bobrovsky is 37 and slowing down; that much can’t be changed. However, the Florida Panthers can influence the remainder of this season and decide what happens next. Whether they choose to stand behind first-year Panther Tarasov (unlikely), they rush Black to the NHL, or they use the trade market with or without draft picks will certainly be the story of this offseason in Sunrise, FL. Daniil Tarsov joined the Panthers this season after four years as a backup in Columbus. He has only appeared in 19 games and has failed to earn a larger share of this season's workload in the net. No matter what they decide, change is coming. Stuart Skinner is the highest-rated goalie headed into free agency this year, and his inconsistencies are well-documented. GM Bill Zito has his work cut out for him as he heads into the postseason, and it could define this era of his career for better or worse.

Let's role play; You get to wear the shoes of Panthers GM Bill Zito this off season. Whats your move(s)? Is Bobrovsky your guy? Do you believe in Tarsov or are you ready to call up Black? Or, do you look outside the organization entirely?